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七国之乱从一开始就存在巨大的漏洞，这些漏洞导致吴楚七国之乱缺乏广泛的支持力量，以及军事行动上的被动局面。
From the beginning, there were huge loopholes in the Rebellion of the Seven Kingdoms, which led to the lack of broad support for the Rebellion of the Seven Kingdoms of Wu and Chu, as well as a passive situation in military operations.

同时，西汉政府虽说是仓促应战，但是能形成正确的战略和平叛方案，并坚定不移地执行。所以，随着时间的推移，吴楚联军必然会越来越被动。
At the same time, although the Western Han government responded hastily, it was able to form a correct strategic counterinsurgency plan and unswervingly implement it. Therefore, as time goes by, the Wu-Chu coalition will inevitably become more and more passive.

七国之战缺少政治上的合法性  The War of the Seven Kingdoms lacked political legitimacy

七国之乱起于汉景帝的削藩令，削藩令损害了诸侯王地方利益，是一次诸侯王国与中央政府的权力之争，也是对汉初分封制的一次修补术。齐国联军以此为由造反，显然在政治上犯了大忌讳，导致他们缺少支持力量。
The Rebellion of the Seven Kingdoms began with Emperor Jing of Han’s feudal reduction order, which harmed the local interests of the princes and kings, was a power struggle between the princely kingdoms and the central government, and was also a mending technique for the enfeoffment system in the early Han Dynasty. The Qi coalition rebelled on this ground, obviously violating a major political taboo, resulting in their lack of support.

1.以诸侯王国私利对抗中央，缺少合法性削藩不是汉景帝一时头脑发热，早在汉文帝时期就不停有大臣提出削藩建议，其原因就是诸侯王国尾大不掉，严重影响了帝国的经济发展和政权的安全。天下人都明白一个道理，削藩是早晚的事，否则一定会酿成大祸，晁错在他的《削藩策》里说：
1. Fighting against the central government with the selfish interests of the princely kingdoms, the lack of legitimacy was not the hot-headed head of Emperor Jing of Han, as early as the reign of Emperor Wen of Han, there were ministers who kept putting forward suggestions to reduce the feudal lords, the reason for which was that the tail of the princely kingdoms was too big, which seriously affected the economic development of the empire and the security of the regime. Everyone in the world understands a truth, it is a matter of time before the feudal lord is cut, otherwise it will definitely cause a great disaster, Chao Cuo said in his “Policy of Reducing the Domain”:

“今削之亦反，不削亦反。削之，其反亟，祸小；不削之，其反迟，祸大。”
“Now it is the opposite of cutting, and it is also the opposite if it is not cut. If it is cut, the rebellion will be urgent, and the disaster will be small; If it is not cut down, it will return slowly, and the disaster will be great. ”

虽然朝廷对晁错的建议反对声很大，其实他们反对的是晁错个人，以及削藩的具体实施步骤，绝不是削藩的大方向。
Although the imperial court was very opposed to Chao Cuo’s suggestion, in fact, they opposed Chao Cuo personally and the specific implementation steps of reducing the domain, which was by no means the general direction of the reduction of the domain.

吴楚联军其实也知道，打出造反的旗号对抗削藩，存在合法性问题，所以打出了“诛晁错清君侧”的旗号。这种欲盖弥彰的做法无法掩盖真相，尤其晁错被杀后，这块遮羞布立刻成了甩在刘濞脸上的洗脚布。
The Wu and Chu coalition forces actually knew that there was a problem of legitimacy in the banner of rebellion against the reduction of the feudal lords, so they played the banner of “punishing Chao Cuoqing on the side of the king”. This kind of desire to cover up cannot hide the truth, especially after Chao Cuo was killed, this fig leaf immediately became a foot cloth thrown on Liu Bi’s face.

2.刘濞与皇室的私人恩怨，让叛军缺少正义性七国之乱的吴国和齐王系，都与皇室存在个人恩怨。
2. Liu Bi’s personal grudge with the royal family made the rebels lack justice The Wu and Qi royal families of the Seven Kingdoms Rebellion both had personal grudges with the royal family.

当初诛灭诸吕行动后，齐王刘襄被汉文帝摘桃子，丢了本以为十拿九稳的皇位，还被汉文帝把齐国拆得七零八碎。这件事导致刘襄、刘章兄弟郁郁而终，刘兴居起兵造反。此番七国之乱，齐王系几乎全部赤膊上阵。
After the operation to eliminate Zhu Lü, Liu Xiang, the king of Qi, was picked peaches by Emperor Wen of Han, lost the throne that he thought was stable, and was also torn to pieces by Emperor Wen of Han. This incident led to the depressed end of Liu Xiang and Liu Zhang’s brothers, and Liu Xingju rebelled. In this Rebellion of the Seven Kingdoms, almost all of the King of Qi went into battle shirtless.

吴王刘濞的太子，与当年还是太子爷的汉景帝，因为一盘棋发生争执，被汉景帝一棋盘砸死。刘濞因为这件事，将送回的儿子尸体又送回长安，给汉文帝难堪。
The prince of Liu Bi, the King of Wu, and Emperor Jing of Han, who was still the crown prince at that time, had a dispute over a game of chess and were smashed to death by Emperor Jing of Han. Because of this incident, Liu Bi sent his son’s body back to Chang’an, embarrassing Emperor Wen of Han.

所以，尽管七国之乱口号喊得震天响，但是挟私报复的成分很清晰，让这场看着很“正义”的起兵变了味。
Therefore, although the slogans of the Seven Kingdoms Rebellion were shouted loudly, the elements of personal retaliation were very clear, which changed the taste of this uprising, which looked very “just”.

3.勾结匈奴，让联军堕落为出卖民族利益的罪人  3. Collaborate with the Xiongnu and degenerate the coalition forces into sinners who betray the interests of the nation

为了保证起兵成功，刘濞还派人联络了匈奴，准备里应外合，共同对付中央政府。毫无疑问，这个行为在任何时候都要遭到谴责，也暴露了刘濞等人为了私利，不惜抛弃国家和民族利益，甘做汉奸罪人的本质。
In order to ensure the success of the uprising, Liu Bi also sent people to contact the Xiongnu to prepare for internal and external cooperation to jointly deal with the central government. There is no doubt that this behavior will be condemned at all times, and it also exposes the essence of Liu Bi and others who do not hesitate to abandon the interests of the country and the nation for personal gain and are willing to be traitors and sinners.

有这三条，联军从一开始性质就变了，让他们处于政治被动的局面。这就是初期看着声势浩大，但始终没有得到广泛响应的原因。
With these three, the nature of the coalition forces has changed from the beginning, putting them in a politically passive situation. This is why it looked huge in the early days, but it never received a wide response.

七国之乱选择的时机不恰当  The timing of the Seven Kingdoms Rebellion was inappropriate

但凡军事动乱想要成功，离不开政治形势的限制，孤立的军事行动几乎是不可能成功的。七国之乱爆发时，西汉帝国在汉文帝苦心孤诣二十余年的经营下，展现出了勃勃生机，不光国力恢复很快，老百姓享受到了福利，由庶系变身嫡系的汉文帝，已经得到了臣民们的广泛支持和认同。
If military turmoil is to succeed, it is inseparable from the constraints of the political situation, and it is almost impossible to succeed in isolated military operations. When the Rebellion of the Seven Kingdoms broke out, the Western Han Empire showed vitality under the painstaking management of Emperor Wen of Han for more than 20 years, not only the national strength recovered quickly, but also the people enjoyed benefits.

历史上一直把汉文帝当做中国第一位千古明君，是有一定道理，他的勤勉，他对自己苛严的自律，他的简朴，他为国家建设所付出的代价，都是几千年封建帝制下，皇帝的楷模。
His diligence, his strict self-discipline for himself, his simplicity, and the price he paid for national construction are all models of emperors under the feudal monarchy for thousands of years.

汉景帝即位虽然时间较短，但是也继承了汉文帝遗志，继续为汉帝国的振兴努力。在这种全国人民精气神高涨，中央政权向心力如此强的情况下，吴楚七国之乱爆发，无疑非常不合时宜。
Although Emperor Jing of Han ascended the throne for a short time, he also inherited the legacy of Emperor Wen of Han and continued to work hard for the revitalization of the Han Empire. In this situation where the spirits of the people of the whole country are high and the centripetal force of the central power is so strong, the outbreak of the Rebellion of the Seven Kingdoms of Wu and Chu is undoubtedly very anachronistic.

汉文帝中后期，贾谊等人就提出削藩策，但是汉文帝考虑到国家经济基础不行，自己的皇位并不算很稳固，他审时度势，以推恩策代替了削藩令。由此可见，无论做什么事，一定要考察大势，哪怕是正确的事。
In the middle and late Han Dynasty Emperor, Jia Yi and others proposed a policy of reducing the feudal lords, but Emperor Wen of Han considered that the country’s economic foundation was not good and his throne was not very stable. It can be seen that no matter what you do, you must examine the general trend, even if it is the right thing.

汉文帝以推恩策代替削藩策，就是大格局，而刘濞等人，只顾私利无视环境状况，失败一点不意外。
Emperor Wen of Han replaced the policy of reducing the feudal lords with the strategy of pushing favors, which was the general pattern, and Liu Bi and others only cared about their selfish interests and ignored the environmental situation, and it was not surprising that they failed.

吴楚联军在军事行动上有大失误  The Wu-Chu coalition made big mistakes in military operations

有人说吴楚败在了周亚夫手下，这么说固然不错，不过军事行动历来就是给对方挖坑，如果自己足够明智，坚决不进陷阱，恐怕再高明的坑都白扯。刘濞就是个蠢材，轻易地跌进了周亚夫给他准备的陷阱。
Some people say that Wu Chu was defeated by Zhou Yafu, which is certainly good, but military operations have always been to dig holes for the other party, if you are wise enough and resolutely do not enter the trap, I am afraid that no matter how clever the pit is, it will be in vain. Liu Bi was an idiot and easily fell into the trap prepared for him by Zhou Yafu.

在围攻梁国的过程中，有人向刘濞提出异议：与其把时间耗在坚固的睢阳城下，为何不直指战略要地长安呢？
In the process of besieging the Liang state, some people raised objections to Liu Bi: Instead of spending time under the fortified city of Suiyang, why not point directly to the strategic location of Chang’an?

这位不知名的将军，提出的这个方案其实一刀戳中了西汉政府的软肋。彼时，周亚夫仓促上阵，兵力不足，他只能抛出梁国做诱饵，试图拖着刘濞。假如刘濞不理会梁国，而是直扑长安，同时由济南国、淄川国、胶东国、胶西国兵力牵制住梁国和周亚夫，不让他们对前军形成追击，会是什么局面呢？
The plan proposed by this unknown general actually hit the weakness of the Western Han government. At that time, Zhou Yafu rushed into battle and lacked troops, so he could only throw out Liang Guo as bait and try to drag Liu Bi. What would be the situation if Liu Bi ignored the Liang Kingdom and went straight to Chang’an, and at the same time the forces of Jinan, Zichuan, Jiaodong, and Jiaoxi held back Liang and Zhou Yafu, preventing them from pursuing the front army?

周亚夫限于兵力不足，在齐王系诸国的牵制下，肯定不能对吴楚前军全力追击。这样一来，长安防守空虚的漏洞，一下子就变成了捏在叛军手上的七寸！先不管他们能不能迅速攻占长安，就这种气势，足以引发天下震动，其他诸侯王乘机加入反叛行列亦未可知！
Zhou Yafu was limited by insufficient troops, and under the containment of the King of Qi’s various countries, he would definitely not be able to pursue the front army of Wu and Chu with all his might. In this way, the loophole in Chang’an’s defense was suddenly turned into seven inches pinched in the hands of the rebels! Regardless of whether they can quickly capture Chang’an, this momentum is enough to cause a shock in the world, and it is unknown whether other princes and kings will take the opportunity to join the rebellion!

当年曾经追随高祖打天下的刘濞，显然不是军事家，被一粒沙子崩掉了大牙，自始至终没有跑得出梁国。
Liu Bi, who once followed Gaozu to fight the world, was obviously not a military strategist, and his teeth were broken by a grain of sand, and he did not run out of the Liang Kingdom from beginning to end.

联军内部缺乏核心行动不一致  There was a lack of core operations within the coalition and inconsistencies

刘濞虽然是这次反叛行动的带头大哥，其实他并不是理想的核心人物，也没有起到精神领袖的作用。
Although Liu Bi was the leading brother of this rebellion, he was not an ideal core figure and did not play the role of a spiritual leader.

七国之乱爆发前，刘濞积极奔走，游说各诸侯王跟他一起干，虽然有一定效果，可是从结果看并不是太理想，二十几位王爷，只有七位参加了行动。
Before the outbreak of the Seven Kingdoms Rebellion, Liu Bi actively ran and lobbied the princes and kings to work with him, although it had a certain effect, but the results were not too ideal, and only seven of the more than twenty princes participated in the action.

为何刘濞的号召力不够？有几个原因。  Why is Liu Bi’s appeal not enough? There are several reasons.

1.刘濞本就是高祖旁系，身份不正刘濞是刘邦的二哥刘仲的儿子，不是刘邦的儿子，这个身份决定了他的号召力不够。当初，刘邦之所以选择刘濞封王，完全是因为自己年轻的时候不务正业，儿子们太小，到自己驾崩大多没成年，迫不得已封了侄子。
1. Liu Bi was originally a collateral descendant of Gaozu, and his identity was not correct Liu Bi was the son of Liu Bang’s second brother Liu Zhong, not Liu Bang’s son, and this identity determined that his appeal was not enough. At the beginning, the reason why Liu Bang chose Liu Bi to be crowned king was entirely because he was not doing his job properly when he was young, and his sons were too young, and most of them were not adults until his death, so he had to seal his nephews.

旁系造直系的反，直系愿意吗？除了与刘恒一系有私怨的而外，其他王爷都不愿意跟随。我估计即便刘濞造反成功，他也会跟直系之间，还要爆发一场旷日持久的厮杀。
Is the direct line willing to create the opposite of the direct lineage? Except for those who had personal grudges with Liu Heng, the other princes were unwilling to follow. I estimate that even if Liu Bi’s rebellion succeeds, he will have a protracted fight between him and his direct lineage.

2.刘濞的为人缺乏领袖的基本素质  2. Liu Bi’s character lacks the basic qualities of a leader

叛乱后期，刘濞与刘戊这个最重要的支持者，在行动方案和物资分配上产生了矛盾。这就暴露了刘濞的狭隘，对他来说，通过刘戊的影响力，积极拉拢其他诸侯王，才是他该做的事。
In the later stages of the rebellion, Liu Bi and Liu Wu, the most important supporters, had conflicts over the action plan and material distribution. This exposed Liu Bi’s narrow-mindedness, and for him, through Liu Wu’s influence, actively winning over other princes and kings was what he should do.

3.刘濞的骄横与富庶很容易成为他王的嫉恨对象吴国的富庶程度，他说第二没人敢说第一。刘濞占了天下两大资源：一是铜矿开采，可以自由铸币；二是靠着大海，为天下供盐。
3. Liu Bi’s arrogance and wealth can easily become the object of his king’s jealousy The wealth of the Wu state, he said that no one dares to say the first. Liu Bi occupies two major resources in the world: one is copper mining, which can be freely minted; The second is to rely on the sea to supply salt to the world.

这两个先天条件，让刘濞富得流油。以他的旁系之身，得了天时，就该谨守规矩，低调做人。可是刘濞首先飘起来，不光大肆养客，私蓄兵马，这么做得罪的不光是中央政府，其他诸侯王恐怕对他也会不感冒。
These two innate conditions made Liu Bi rich. With his collateral body, when he gets the time, he should abide by the rules and be a low-key person. But Liu Bi floated up first, not only wantonly raising guests and privately accumulating soldiers and horses, and offending not only the central government by doing so, but also other princes and kings would probably not be interested in him.

从身份上看，当时恐怕只有淮南王刘安具备诸侯王领袖的条件，可惜此人空有野心，能力低下，政治上的白痴劲，直追其父。
From the perspective of identity, I am afraid that only Liu An, the king of Huainan, had the conditions to be the leader of the princes and kings at that time, but unfortunately this person had empty ambitions, low ability, and political idiocy, and chased after his father.

西汉政府正确的平叛方案和执行力  The correct counterinsurgency plan and execution of the Western Han government

当然，七国之乱三个月被平定，还跟中央政府正确的平叛方案及执行力有关，主要体现在以下几个方面：
Of course, the Seven Kingdoms Rebellion was quelled in three months, which is also related to the correct counterinsurgency plan and execution of the central government, which is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

1.选择了一位正确的军事将领汉景帝最英明的一件事就是选择周亚夫，做平叛行动的最高指挥官。事实证明，周亚夫不愧为名将之后，他不世出的军事才能，拯救了大汉帝国。
1. Choosing the right military general One of the wisest things about Emperor Jing of Han was to choose Zhou Yafu as the supreme commander of the counterinsurgency operation. Facts have proved that after Zhou Yafu was worthy of being a famous general, his extraordinary military talent saved the Han Empire.

2.周亚夫的行动方案和执行力到位周亚夫的才华，首先体现在大局观。他对形势的判断既冷静又准确，也相当有针对性。基于汉军兵力不足，叛军来势汹汹，他制定了以时间换空间的策略，不硬拼，采取拖延战术，困住对手，以观时变。
2. Zhou Yafu’s action plan and execution are in place Zhou Yafu’s talent is first reflected in the overall situation. His judgment of the situation is calm and accurate, and quite targeted. Based on the lack of strength of the Han army and the menacing rebels, he formulated a strategy of exchanging time for space, not fighting hard, and adopting delaying tactics to trap opponents and observe the changes of the times.

叛军虽然一时占优，但是毕竟是以七国对付全国，时间就是七国的大敌，汉军等得起，七国等不起。所以，周亚夫充分利用叛军急于求战的心理，将梁国扔给他们。叛军被梁国这块看着诱人的大肥肉，失去了正常思维，白白丧失了优势。
Although the rebels had the upper hand for a while, after all, they were dealing with the whole country with the Seven Kingdoms, and time was the enemy of the Seven Kingdoms. Therefore, Zhou Yafu made full use of the rebels’ eagerness to fight and threw the Liang Kingdom to them. The rebels were lost their normal thinking by Liang’s attractive fat and lost their advantage in vain.

面对朝廷的各种压力，周亚夫始终不改变策略，坚持打消耗战。终于等到了吴楚联军的漏洞，断了他们的粮草供应。倘若周亚夫策略有误，选择硬拼，或者顶不住压力，被吴楚联军吃掉，那就是滔天大祸。
In the face of various pressures from the imperial court, Zhou Yafu never changed his strategy and insisted on fighting a war of attrition. Finally, they waited for the loophole of the Wu-Chu coalition army and cut off their supply of food and grass. If Zhou Yafu’s strategy is wrong, he chooses to fight hard, or he can’t withstand the pressure and is eaten by the Wu-Chu coalition army, it will be a catastrophe.

3.汉景帝对周亚夫坚定不移的支持汉景帝识人，在关键时刻能顶得住压力，坚决做周亚夫的后盾，将平叛大权完全交给周亚夫，而不是干预行动，这是周亚夫能按照自己的想法平叛的保证。
3. Emperor Jing of Han unswervingly supported Zhou Yafu, and Emperor Jing of Han recognized people, was able to withstand the pressure at critical moments, resolutely backed Zhou Yafu, and completely handed over the power of counter-rebellion to Zhou Yafu, rather than intervening, which was the guarantee that Zhou Yafu could counter the rebellion according to his own ideas.

我们可以对照一下靖难之役，朱允炆在择人和用人上的屡屡失误，与汉景帝真的相差太远。
We can compare the Battle of Jingnan, Zhu Yunwen’s repeated mistakes in selecting and employing people, which are really too far from Emperor Jing of Han.

4.朝廷上下表现出来的空前团结虽然朝廷在队削藩策上的争议颇大，大臣们对晁错存在明显的排挤，和个人利益之争，但是在平叛这件大是大非的问题上，所表现出来的团结，还是非常值得称道的。
4. The unprecedented unity shown by the imperial court Although the imperial court was quite controversial on the strategy of reducing the feudal lords, and the ministers had obvious exclusion of Chao Cuo and the struggle for personal interests, the unity shown on the issue of counterinsurgency was still very commendable.

比如袁盎，他一手把晁错推向了刑场，但是在劝说刘濞失败的情况下，不顾刘濞的死亡威胁，冒死逃回汉营，表现出对叛军不屈的信念。比如窦婴，虽然不赞同削藩，但是叛乱爆发后，他立刻利用自己的人脉关系，推荐人才，并领兵走向平叛战场。
For example, Yuan Ang, who single-handedly pushed Chao Cuo to the execution ground, but when he failed to persuade Liu Bi, he risked his life to flee back to the Han camp despite Liu Bi’s death threats, showing his unyielding belief in the rebels. For example, Dou Ying, although he did not agree with the reduction of the domain, but after the outbreak of the rebellion, he immediately used his connections to recommend talents and lead troops to the counterinsurgency battlefield.

除了朝中大员，连民间的江湖人士，都纷纷贡献一己之力。比如季布、剧孟等。
In addition to the DPRK and Central Committee, even the people of the civil society have contributed their own strength. For example, Ji Bu, Ju Meng, etc.

由以上分析可知，七国之乱从一开始就在政治上缺乏合法性，也没有正义性，叛军内部也不断出现失误。相反，汉政府采取了正确的平叛方略，又得到了广泛的民众基础。多方原因综合，七国之乱失败，一点不奇怪。
From the above analysis, it can be seen that the Rebellion of the Seven Kingdoms lacked political legitimacy and justice from the beginning, and there were continuous mistakes within the rebels. On the contrary, the Han government adopted the correct counterinsurgency strategy and gained a broad popular base. It is not surprising that the Rebellion of the Seven Kingdoms failed due to a combination of many reasons.

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